Thursday, April 3, 2008

March NFP better or worse?

Today is The first week of the month where the NFP-nonfarm payrolls data will realese.When the data realease the market will moved actif and can give spike more than 100 pips
up and down volatility.

Will March Non-Farm Payrolls be Better or Worse than February?

Nearly all of the leading indicators for non-farm payrolls indicate that March was a month of job losses.
However, even though the odds are skewed towards greater job loss, conflicting reports make it important not to rule out the possibility there was less jobs lost in March than there was in February. Either way, the state of the labor market will grow increasingly worse in the coming months even if there is a rebound in March. For traders, if non-farm payrolls are better than -63k, the dollar should rally and rate cut expectations will grow in favor of a 25bp rate cut because everyone will believe that the US labor market has hit a bottom.If it is worse, expect the US dollar to not only resume its slide, but make a run for a new record low in the coming weeks. As usual, also watch for revisions to the February figure because it can easily exacerbate or negate the changes to the current month’s headline number.

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