Friday, September 5, 2008

Tonight NFP source

Where US NFP should go tonight(Malaysia time)?

Consensus Estimate 60K to 75K Loss in Payroll Jobs

Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment continued its downtrend in July with U.S. employers shaving 51,000 jobs, marking the first time since May 2002 that the economy lost jobs for seven consecutive months. The Labor Department also reported last month that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent—its highest level in more than four years—erasing all job gains made over the last year. Revisions to May and June's payrolls showed a total of 26,000 fewer jobs were lost than previously expected, bringing the number of jobs lost so far in 2008 to 463,000.

On the inflation front, the Commerce Department reported last week that the GDP price index was revised to an annualized 1.2 percent—up from the initial estimate of 1.1 percent—virtually eliminating any claims of recession for spring. The sharp easing in overall price index was technical in nature, caused by a spike in nominal imports cutting into nominal GDP growth. In contrast, the inflation for final sales of domestic purchases was revised up to a strong 4.3 percent, compared to the initial estimate of 4.2 percent.

Here are the several key factor are throught to have influence in AUGUST NFP.

They include:

• Employment continued to fall in construction, manufacturing, and several service-providing industries, while health care and mining continued to add jobs

• Notable decreases were also seen in retail trade and wholesale trade—each down 17,000 for the latest month

• The decline of 51,000 in payrolls represents a 0.04% drop that is consistent with the recent trend of declines at about a 0.5% annual rate

Hourly earnings rose by 6 cents, bouncing back to a 0.3% gain over the month

• Average weekly hours slipped to 33.6 hours in July from 33.7 hours in June

For week ending August 23, the Labor Department reported that the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 425,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 435,000. They also reported a four-week moving average of 440,250, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised average of 446,250.

The July employment report shows that although the labor sector is weaker than many have been expecting, the payroll declines still are not large enough to pull the overall economy into recession. The bottom line is that the economy has been growing much better than expected despite the credit crunch. It is still likely that the economy will slow during the second half, but perhaps not as much as the Fed needs. Look for the Fed to increase rates in January.

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